The bearish phase of bitcoin will end in 250 days if the market cycle repeats. Such calculations were made by analysts of Grayscale Investments.
According to experts, the duration of bitcoin cycles on average is four years or about 1,275 days.
Decrease in the realized price below the market price serves as a trigger for entering a bearish phase. This is the MVRV indicator. In March 2021 the experts excluded the signal, pointing to the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The last time the realized price fell below the market price was on June 13, 2022. Previously, this condition lasted for an average of 250 days. As of July 12, only 21 days had passed since the beginning of the phase.
According to historical data, bitcoin’s bullish phases have become more extended in time. While in 2012 it took 603 days for the market to peak, in 2016 and 2020 it took 786 and 952 days, respectively.
At each subsequent iteration, the duration increased by 180 days.
Experts attributed this to the increasing maturity of the market.
Overall, it took bitcoin about four years (1,290 and 1,257 days in these cases, respectively) to form a full 2012 cycle in 2016. It took 391 and 364 days to go from a peak of 73% in 2012 and 84% in 2016.
The length of the current 2020 cycle has reached 1,198 days (as of July 12, 2022). In other words, it could be another four months or so before the selling price exceeds the market price.
The record high was 222 days ago. That means another five to six months of downward or sideways price movement. Historically, the bottom of the market comes one month earlier each time, the experts explained.
Provided market history repeats itself, current levels represent a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to open positions, concluded Grayscale Investments.